Expected Value (EV)

The probability-weighted average net result of repeating the same decision many times.

Multiply each possible net result by its probability and add the values. An EV of −4 coins means an average loss of four coins per repeated 100-coin decision over a very large sample; it does not predict the next result.

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Expected value calculator

Win chance45%

Payout on win×2.0

Expected return

90%

House edge

10%

Over time this returns less than you wager — that gap is the house edge. Great for free-coin fun, never a way to profit.

Expected return = win chance × payout. Below 100% means the game keeps the difference over the long run, regardless of short-term luck.

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Expected Value (EV)

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